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၍ጕ˰ޢ҅ැ ீൖၽᝄτΌ
Ꮠd௰Շ٫ʘගٙنਗ਼ೌ̙ᒒеiЎ Offensive Realismኪݼٙක௴٫ܸ̈d
持續「鬥而不破」 лಌࣣʕܸ̈dίཀ̘ʞϵϋʕdΌଢ ߕਿଫϽඎdрɢ՟Г̒ଢᚡᛆ
ήЗdϤ၇ኧ৸ʊܵᚃϵϋfΪϤdߕ
Ϟ 16 ࡈৎ੶ᛆܿᚡᛆࣩٙԷਞԈ
ڌ 1dՉʕϞ 12 ଡ଼࿁ͭd௰ໝɝࡌ ί՟Г̒ଢٙਜਹᚡ˴ήЗܝdՉ˴ࠅ
ֵᅃԥdԐΣنf ͦᅺఱ݊Όɢڜ˟ίԭݲאᆄݲ̈ତঐၾ
ߕҤፅٙਜਹᚡ˴f݂Ͼdν؈ʕɽ
ЎлಌٙᝈᓃႩމߕʕላ߉݊ഐ
༊ྡ˴ኬԭݲdۆ˷̙ཫߕਗ਼ึ
ٙd˲˷̙၈މնʕء֛fவ၇ߕ
හΌɢଘՓԨۂࢮʕɽd௰Դʕ
ʕላ߉ೌ̙ᒒеٙేᝈሞᓃ͵̈ତί
ɽʔΎϞঐɢછՓԭݲiϷဧऎᎰԨ
̤ɓЗߕഹΤኪ٫dٺ̋ࡩɽኪ
ཫߕ̙ঐમ՟࿁˹ۃᘽᑌٙи˙ό
ٙϷဧऎᎰJohn MearsheimerՉሞ
Ը࿁˹ʕɽf
ഹʕfவЗყᗫڷଣሞҸැତྼ˴່
表 1 修昔底德陷阱案例
編號 時期 霸權國 崛起強權 範圍 結果
1 15 ˰ߏૉಂ ൃ˫ Гफ˫ Όଢၾ൱ ձ̻
2 16 ˰ߏۃ̒ جc ۞̺ఝˮಃ Гᆄᛆ ක
3 16 ä 17 ˰ߏ ۞̺ఝˮಃ ඈྡਟɺЀಂ ʕ؇ᆄᛆʿήʕऎऎᛆ ක
4 17 ˰ߏۃ̒ ۞̺ఝˮಃ cՊ ̏ᆄᛆʿऎᛆ ක
5 17 ˰ߏʕಂЇૉಂ ஃcᚆ ߵࣸᚆ Όଢeऎᛆʿ൱ ක
6 17 ˰ߏૉಂä جc ߵc Όଢᆄᛆ ක
18 ˰ߏʕಂ
7 18 ˰ߏૉಂä ߵc جc ᆄݲٙᛆʿऎᛆ ක
19 ˰ߏڋಂ
Όଢeίʕԭʿ؇ή
8 19 ˰ߏʕಂ جၾߵ ڶᖯ ක
ʕऎϞᅂᚤɢ
9 19 ˰ߏʕಂ جc ᅃc ᆄݲᛆ ක
10 19 ˰ߏૉಂä ʕၾڶᖯ ˚c͉ ؇ԭᛆʿऎᛆ ක
20 ˰ߏڋಂ
11 20 ˰ߏڋಂ ߵc ߕc ˕ৣΌଢʿГ̒ଢٙ ձ̻
ऎɪᎴැ
ߵd͟جʿ
12 20 ˰ߏڋಂ ᅃc ᆄݲᛆʿΌଢऎᛆ ක
ڶᖯ˕ܵ
13 20 ˰ߏʕಂ ᘽᑌeجၾߵ ᅃc ᆄݲᛆʿऎᛆ ක
14 20 ˰ߏʕಂ ߕc ˚c͉ ऎᛆʿԭ˄ਜਹᅂᚤɢ ක
15 1940s ä 1980s ߕc ᘽcᑌ Όଢᛆɢ ձ̻̻
16 1990s äʦ ߵၾج ᅃc ᆄݲ݁طᅂᚤɢ ձ̻
༟ࣘԸ๕j Graham Allison, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? (New York: Houghton (New York: Houghton Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?
Mifflin Harcourt, 2017), p. 244.
No.19 JAN. 2019. MJIB 11